Pakali pano, vuto la mliri wapadziko lonse likadali lovuta kwambiri, kuphatikizapo zinthu monga mayendedwe okhwima komanso kukwera kwamitengo ya chakudya ndi mphamvu, kuchuluka kwa inflation m'mayiko ambiri otukuka kwakwera kwambiri m'zaka khumi.Akatswiri angapo ovomerezeka amakhulupirira kuti chuma cha padziko lonse chalowa "nthawi yokwera mtengo" ndipo chikuwonetsa "mikhalidwe isanu ndi umodzi yokwera".
Kukwera mtengo wachitetezo chaumoyo.Tang Jianwei, wofufuza wamkulu wa Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, akukhulupirira kuti poyang'ana kwakanthawi, mliriwu wapangitsa kuchepa kwa kupanga zinthu zoyambira, kutsekeka kwa kayendetsedwe ka mayiko ndi malonda, kusowa kwa mafakitale. katundu ndi kukwera mtengo.Ngakhale zinthu zitasintha pang’onopang’ono, kupeŵa ndi kuletsa miliri ndi kufalikira kwa miliri kudzakhalabe chizolowezi.Liu Yuanchun, wachiwiri kwa purezidenti wa Renmin University of China, adati kukhazikika kwa kupewa ndi kuwongolera miliri kudzakulitsa mtengo wathu wachitetezo komanso ndalama zaumoyo.Mtengowu uli ngati zigawenga za "9.11" zomwe zadzetsa kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo yachitetezo padziko lonse lapansi.
Ndalama zothandizira anthu zimakwera.Malinga ndi lipoti la kafukufuku lomwe linatulutsidwa ndi bungwe la China Macroeconomic Forum pa Marichi 26, mliri utatha mu 2020, msika wapadziko lonse wa anthu ogwira ntchito wasintha kwambiri, makamaka m'maiko otukuka, ndipo pakhala kusowa kwa ntchito.Ndi kukula kosalekeza kwa mliri ndi kusintha kwa ndondomeko zopewera miliri ya dziko, chiwerengero cha anthu osowa ntchito chatsika.Komabe, m’katimo, kuchepa kwa chiŵerengero cha anthu ogwira nawo ntchito kwadzetsa kusowa kwa ogwira ntchito mosiyanasiyana m’mafakitale osiyanasiyana, limodzi ndi kukwera kwa malipiro.Ku US, mwachitsanzo, malipiro a ola limodzi adakwera 6% mu Epulo 2020, poyerekeza ndi malipiro apakati mu 2019, ndipo adakwera ndi 10.7% kuyambira Januware 2022.
Mtengo wa deglobalization wakula.Liu Yuanchun adanena kuti kuyambira mkangano wamalonda wa Sino-US, maiko onse awonetsa kugawika kwachikhalidwe chantchito, ndiko kuti, kumanga kwaunyolo ndi unyolo wamtengo wapatali ndi magawo osunthika a ntchito monga gulu lalikulu m'mbuyomu, ndi dziko liyenera kuyang'ana kwambiri chitetezo m'malo mochita bwino.Choncho, mayiko onse akupanga malupu awo amkati ndikupanga mapulani a "tayala yopuma" a matekinoloje ofunikira ndi matekinoloje apamwamba, zomwe zimapangitsa kuchepa kwa kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kakeAkatswiri monga Zhang Jun, Chief Economist wa Morgan Stanley Securities, Wang Jun, Chief Economist wa Zhongyuan Bank, amakhulupirira kuti kaya ndi kuchuluka kwaimfa komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa masks ndi ma ventilator padziko lonse lapansi kumayambiriro kwa mliri, kapena kupanga mafoni a m'manja ndi magalimoto chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa tchipisi pambuyo pake Kutsika kapena kuyimitsidwa kwa kupanga kwawonetsa kufooka kwa gawo lapadziko lonse la ogwira ntchito kutengera mfundo ya Pareto optimality, ndipo mayiko sakuwonanso kuwongolera mtengo ngati chinthu chofunikira kwambiri. kwa masanjidwe a global supply chain.

Mtengo wosinthira wobiriwira ukuwonjezeka.Akatswiri akukhulupirira kuti pambuyo pa "Pangano la Paris", "carbon peak" ndi "carbon neutral" mapangano omwe adasainidwa ndi mayiko osiyanasiyana abweretsa dziko lapansi munyengo yatsopano ya kusintha kobiriwira.Kusintha kobiriwira kwa mphamvu m'tsogolomu kudzakwera mtengo wa mphamvu zachikhalidwe kumbali imodzi, ndikuwonjezera ndalama mu mphamvu zatsopano zobiriwira kumbali inayo, zomwe zidzakweza mtengo wa mphamvu zobiriwira.Ngakhale kupanga mphamvu zatsopano zongowonjezwdwa kungathandize kuchepetsa kukakamizidwa kwanthawi yayitali pamitengo yamagetsi, kukula kwa mphamvu zongowonjezwwdwa kumakhala kovuta kukwaniritsa kufunikira kwamphamvu padziko lonse lapansi pakanthawi kochepa, ndipo padzakhalabe kupanikizika kwamphamvu pakusintha kwamitengo yamagetsi. nthawi yaifupi ndi yapakatikati.

Mitengo ya Geopolitical ikukwera.Akatswiri monga Liu Xiaochun, Wachiwiri kwa Dean wa China Institute of Financial Research ku Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Zhang Liqun, wofufuza pa Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council ndi akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti pakali pano, zoopsa zapadziko lonse lapansi ndizovuta. kuwonjezeka pang'onopang'ono, zomwe zakhudza kwambiri ndale ndi zachuma padziko lonse lapansi, komanso kupereka mphamvu ndi katundu.Unyolo ukuchulukirachulukira, ndipo mtengo wamayendedwe ukukula kwambiri.Kuonjezera apo, kuwonongeka kwa zochitika za geopolitical monga mkangano wa Russia ndi Chiyukireniya wachititsa kuti anthu ambiri ndi zinthu zakuthupi zigwiritsidwe ntchito pankhondo ndi mikangano yandale m'malo mochita zopindulitsa.Mtengo umenewu mosakayikira ndi waukulu.